India and Canada, two countries which have been allies for a long time, with nearly $8.16 billion bilateral trade in 2022-23 and with nearly 1.9 million Indians living in Canada, are now on the verge of a ‘diplomatic collapse’. The power both these countries hold is massive with respect to global affairs. A friendly relationship was beneficial for both Indians and Canadians. The world happily recognised the closeness they both held until Trudeau’s plane broke down in New Delhi during the G20 Summit. During this incident in September, the world saw Trudeau declining India’s offer to fly back home in ‘Air India One’ and instead he chose to wait for two days. The world saw the awkwardness and understood the rising tension, speculations turned into reality the next month in October 2023. The recent chain of events with attacks on Indian consulates in Canada by Khalistani groups and the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023 has led to a strained Indo-Canadian relationship. These events bring this alliance to a crossroad of three questions- how did this happen, why did this happen, which parties are involved in this situation. With India holding a great advantage over Canada especially by funding a major chunk of their education industry (almost $8 billion each year), amidst the raging fires of loan mortgage payment in Canada and a tumultuous political situation with the steady rise of the opposition, has Justin Trudeau actually taken on more than he can handle? In International Relations, it becomes very essential to understand the grey area by taking into consideration all the perspectives.
Indo-Canadian relations which looked very promising in early 2023 have now turned complicated, with the Early Trade Progress Agreement (EPTA), the building block of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) at halt and tensions in diplomatic dialogue. India imported merchandise worth U.S.$4.05 billion, in return of Canada’s U.S.$ 4.11 billion in FY 2022-23. According to the Ministry of Commerce’s TradeStat, in FY 2022-23, Canada was India’s 35th largest trading partner, meanwhile India is Canada’s 14th largest trading partner. According to data culled from their respective websites and other sources, Canada’s three major funds – Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) and Ontario Teachers Pension Plan – have invested more than $30 billion (Rs 2.49 trillion) in India in both listed and unlisted firms. Canada, the education hub for a lot of Indian families, has only granted 14,910 student visas in Oct-Dec quarter in 2023, a sharp decline from the 1.1 lakh visas granted in 2022. Moreover, it is important to note that both India and Canada benefit each other financially and politically, but in the political scheme of things, their relations appear to be faltering.
Who is Nijjar and why has this individual become so important in recent times? To answer this one has to know that the Khalistani movement which is a Sikh separatist movement has been on the rise in some countries like the United States (U.S.A), the United Kingdom (U.K.), Australia and especially Canada. India has objected to the spread of this movement but no strict action has been taken to counter the same. According to Anti-Terrorism Act 2001 of the Canadian Law, “a ‘terrorist group’ is defined as an entity that has as one of its purposes or activities facilitating or carrying out terrorist activity or that is an entity set out in a list established by regulation. For listed entities, the fact of being listed establishes them as terrorist groups. Being on the list does not itself constitute a criminal offence, although it can lead to criminal consequences”. Thus, only two organisations i.e. ‘Babbar Khalsa International’ which was involved in the hijacking and crashing of Air India Flight 182, killing 329 civilians (mostly Canadians) and ‘International Sikh Youth Federation’ (ISYF) are listed as a terrorist group. Other organisations such as the ‘Sikhs For Justice’, ‘Khalistan Tiger Force’, etc. are not part of it because they are not involved in any terrorist activities directly, on Canadian soil.
However, these other organisations are involved in spreading the idea of ‘Khalistan’, and minimum or no legal actions are taken against them, there have been instances where anti-India slogans were raised and the assassination of Indira Gandhi was glorified. One such leader was Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the chief of ‘Khalistan Tiger Force’ and a wanted criminal by India, he was shot dead by three masked assassins outside a Gurudwara in Surrey, British Columbia on 18th June 2023. Nijjar’s supporters accused India for the killing. With political pressures the Trudeau government took this matter seriously and investigated the assassination. Three months later, the next thing the globe heard was Trudeau’s accusation. On 18 September, in an emergency session in the parliament, Trudeau said that Canada’s intelligence agencies are investigating “credible allegations” that the killing of Nijjar is linked to “agents of the government of India.”
This situation can be easily called a ‘diplomatic collapse’, as both the parties have shown rigidity or rather it is a show of strength, the point of focus has been retaliation and accusation rather than taking a conciliatory and corrective approach. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s public remarks against India, and that too without any substantial proof shown, is one of those moments which will always act as a ‘knot’, even if the Indo-Canadian thread is mended. Though the incident of Nijjar’s killing and the alleged involvement of Indian intelligence services was raised by Canadian bureaucrats with their Indian counterparts, some time prior, sharing this information publicly turned out to be risky and came with consequences. Does the Canadian government possess the right to maintain secrecy in matters of national interest? Definitely, but then again it came out just as an accusation, and the outright removal of Indian diplomat Pavan Kumar Rai, who headed the operations of the Research and Analysis Wing in Canada, came out as a very offensive and hasty move. In response, India asked Canada to withdraw 41 diplomats, which they did. A better way out would have been a private channel of communication between the two countries, instead of the expulsion of diplomats executed by both nations.
Indo-Canadian relations may have found a new relief through mutual understanding after India resumed visa services to Canadians, but the ‘knot’ may trouble Indians in Canada, who seek out jobs and educational opportunities. The Indian govt. also understands the role that Canada plays, with the remittances from abroad received by NRIs, similarly with the monetary gains that the Canadian education system receives and the subsequent boost in the Canadian economy through the inclusion of Indians, is something that both the parties do not want to let go of. It is important for both nations to maintain good relations with each other generally and if the west wants to counter China through India, it becomes crucial for all the key players to maintain friendly relations with India. Although India and Canada need to be vocal about their stance, it also becomes necessary for them to try and mend their relationship, for mutual growth and development.
References
- Legislative Services Branch. (2003, January 6). Consolidated federal laws of Canada, Anti-terrorism Act. https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/a-11.7/
- Public Safety Canada. (2022, May 20). Currently listed entities. https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/lstd-ntts/crrnt-lstd-ntts-en.aspx
- Ghosh, S. (2023, September 30). The potential economic and trade fallout of strained Indo-Candian diplomatic relations | Explained. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/the-potential-economic-and-trade-fallout-of-strained-indo-candian-diplomatic-relations-explained/article67349441.ece
- Guest. (2023, September 21). Canadian funds hold over $30 billion in India. Financial Express. https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-canadian-funds-hold-over-30-billion-in-india-3250991/
- Sengupta, A. (2023, September 21). A history of the Khalistan movement in Canada, going back more than 40 years. The Indian Express. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-history/history-khalistan-in-canada-explained-8946517/
- https://www.india.com/education/canada-sees-record-drop-in-indian-students-visas-amidst-ongoing-diplomatic-row-86-fall-in-study-permits-6660626/